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Damage Assessment of Hurricane Flooding A Probabilistic Approach

October 07, 2014
3:00 pm - 4:00 pm

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Dr. Francisco Olivera
Department of Civil Engineering Texas A&M University

Associate Professor

Abstract

In this study, we developed an approach for evaluating hurricane flood risk and identify areas that are more prone to it. Flood water elevations were estimated with Surge Response Functions (SRFs), which represent surge values as a function of hurricane parameters (i.e., central pressure, radius, forward speed, approaching angle and landfall location). SRFs were developed for different points along the coastline and it was assumed the water elevation at the shoreline projected horizontally inland within an area of influence. The probability of occurrence of each surge elevation was calculated using a joint probability distribution of the hurricane parameters. Individual parcel flood damage was calculated based on the flood water depth and damage vs. depth curves. Parcel data, including its property value, was obtained from county appraisal district offices. Expected changes for future climate scenarios (i.e., IPCC scenarios B1, A1B and A1FI for the 2030ʼs and 2080ʼs) were considered by accounting for projected sea surface temperature increases and sea level rise, which modify the probability distribution of hurricane central pressure and change the baseline of damage calculation, respectively. The risk map of Port Aransas in the Corpus Christi area, for example, shows that the risk is in the range of 1% to 4% of the property value for current climate conditions, and shifts to 1% to 8% for the 2030ʼs and 1% to 14% for the 2080ʼs.

Biography

Dr. Francisco Olivera is an Associate Professor of Civil Engineering. Prior to joining the TAMU faculty in 2001, he was a Lecturer and Research Scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. He received his Ph.D. degree in Civil Engineering from the University of Texas at Austin in 1996, his M.S. in Hydraulic Engineering from the International Institute for Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering (IHE) in Delft in 1988, and his Professional Degree in Civil Engineering from the Catholic University of Peru in Lima in 1981. His expertise is in the application of Geographic Information Systems to water resources engineering. Dr. Olivera has presented his work at universities and research institutions and taught short courses in the US and other countries, including Argentina, Brazil, Finland, Morocco, Peru, Portugal and Spain. He is Associate Editor of the Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, the Journal of Hydrologic Engineering and the Journal of Earth Sciences.

Details

Date:
October 7, 2014
Time:
3:00 pm - 4:00 pm

Venue

Koldus Room 110